MikeCheck: Grizzlies Draft Files – The Case of Marvin Bagley III

MEMPHIS – The Grizzlies are closing in on Thursday’s NBA Draft with their options as wide open and diverse as the talent among projected top players on the board.

As pre-draft workouts wrap up and potential trade scenarios are discussed regarding what the Grizzlies will do with the No. 4 overall pick, we’ve examined the cases of eight potential franchise-altering players in the draft who are – or should be – under strong consideration for that selection.

Opening Statement

“I want to get better so bad to the point where, sometimes, I have to even step back and take a deep breath and kind of relax. I want people to remember me as someone who came to play every night and gave it their all every time they stepped between the lines. I know how much work I put in, so it’s hard for me to say that I’m not the best player in the draft.” – Marvin Bagley III, after a recent workout in Atlanta, on his drive to prove he’s the best player in the draft.

The Case For Bagley

From Hall of Fame coaches at the college and pro level to opposing players and league scouts and executives, no player in the draft is viewed as more “NBA ready” than Bagley. His combination of size, skill, shooting, athleticism, work ethic and high-level production in college support his case as a “can’t miss” prospect. It equates to Bagley basically having zero bust potential.

This is not strictly a subjective view. The advanced metrics also agree. ESPN’s Draft Analytics model, based on a formula that computes a prospect’s overall potential NBA impact, projects Bagley – not Arizona’s Deandre Ayton – as the No. 1 player atop the board.

The fact is he combines the skillset he has offensively with touch – from either block, over either shoulder, with the athleticism he has. He’s going to be an elite level rebounder, but he can also step outside to the three-point line. For me, that’s a future All-Star.

— Tim Legler

“Bagley, to me, has star written all over him,” former NBA player and ESPN analyst Tim Legler said of Bagley. “The fact is he combines the skillset he has offensively with touch – from either block, over either shoulder, with the athleticism he has. He’s going to be an elite level rebounder, but he can also step outside to the three-point line. For me, that’s a future All-Star.”

For the Grizzlies, that would be an instant and dynamic punch at a position of need for an offense begging desperately for an elite scorer. Memphis’ struggles are well documented. Bagley’s infusion of youth and athleticism, should he slip to No. 4, would serve multiple purposes for the Grizzlies.

General manager Chris Wallace said the priority in this draft is to find an impact player to provide “a tremendous spark to the team right now, as well as to be a bridge to the future.” Bagley checks off both boxes likely better than any player who might be available when Memphis picks. He’d be a third scoring option that plugs in seamlessly alongside veterans Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, and would ultimately push JaMychal Green into a much better-suited role as a veteran stabilizer off the bench.

Watch Bagley’s monster performance against Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament, when his full arsenal was on display with 33 points, 17 rebounds, a pair of threes and 20 free-throw attempts. Then consider he set every Duke freshman offensive record. On top of that, he was one of three players in ACC history to lead the conference in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage, joining Horace Grant and Tim Duncan. Bagley had six 30-point games last season. The Grizzlies had nine among their entire roster.

What I didn’t realize is just what an amazing worker he was. And he really wants to be good. Special. He’s willing to pay the price. He has a great motor. He hangs on your words. He’s an incredible listener. He’s going to be one of the (best) players of his era.

— Mike Krzyzewski

“You don’t know a kid until you coach him,” Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said on a national radio show about Bagley’s NBA preparation. “What I didn’t realize is just what an amazing worker he was. And he really wants to be good. Special. He’s willing to pay the price. He has a great motor. He hangs on your words. He’s an incredible listener. He’s going to be one of the (best) players of his era.”

The Case Against Bagley

As detailed in this same space during our Case File on Duke teammate Wendell Carter Jr., the knock on both Duke big men is their perceived defensive deficiencies that forced the Blue Devils to play zone. On the surface, Bagley’s rebounding – particularly his quick second-jump and out-of-area pursuit of the ball – will translate well to the NBA. But his relative footwork and attention to detail in defending out to the three-point line or switching onto smaller defenders will require improvement entering the league.

Consider this: Chris Bosh and Amar’e Stoudemire also had to learn the intricacies of NBA defense, and they still found ways to dominate for years.

You know about the ceiling of Ayton and the potential of (Mo) Bamba. You hope what Trae Young did in college is going to translate. Jaren Jackson is about potential. At some point, you have to settle somewhere, and (Bagley) seems like the type of guy that will be the next Chris Bosh. He can get you 20 and 10, get you a couple of blocks (and) he’s an improved shooter.

— Jalen Rose

“He’s the best … safest pick in this year’s draft,” former NBA swingman Jalen Rose said in breaking down Bagley. “You know about the ceiling of Ayton and the potential of (Mo) Bamba. You hope what Trae Young did in college is going to translate. Jaren Jackson is about potential. At some point, you have to settle somewhere, and (Bagley) seems like the type of guy that will be the next Chris Bosh. He can get you 20 and 10, get you a couple of blocks (and) he’s an improved shooter.”

Rounding out that robust game will be the difference between Bagley being a potential All-Star and a potential All-NBA talent destined for Hall of Fame production. Scouts believe Bagley, at this stage in his development, is too reliant on his left hand around the basket. He’s also 6-11 and jumps out of the gym, but has been a subpar rim protector, having averaged less than a block a game at Duke.

For that reason, there are some concerned whispers around the league that Bagley will struggle to defend pick-and-rolls and doesn’t project well defensively if moved to center. But a team like the Grizzlies has strong support defensively for Bagley, with Gasol still one of the smarter system bigs in the league and Green as rugged and versatile as they come at the power forward spot.

Bagley also enters the league with star appeal and a strong sense of entitlement. The Arizona prep standout said after his workout for the Suns that he would hold a grudge throughout his career if his hometown team passed him up to instead select Ayton, as many expect Thursday. Bagley also just signed a five-year shoe endorsement contract with Puma, which reportedly is believed to be the richest shoe deal for an NBA rookie since Kevin Durant’s seven-year, $60 million pact with Nike back in 2007.

Being an ideal fit in Memphis goes deeper than just stepping into a position of need. It also requires the humility, work ethic, high demands and accountability that come with playing with Gasol and Conley. Both are widely respected for their willingness and preference to grind outside of the spotlight and hype. By most accounts, Bagley simply gets it, too. And beyond that, he gets after it on the court.

I put a lot of work into this. It’s kind of hard for me to take failure. Failure is good (motivation). But I pride myself on getting better and believing in myself.

— Marvin Bagley III

“I definitely believe in my game,” Bagley said. “I put a lot of work into this. It’s kind of hard for me to take failure. Failure is good (motivation). But I pride myself on getting better and believing in myself.”

The Verdict

The Grizzlies are a firm believer, too. Or, at least, they should be despite not getting a chance to work out Bagley in Memphis leading into draft week. Ayton, Bagley, Jackson and Luka Doncic are considered the consensus top four players in the draft. The Grizzlies have the fourth pick. So by simple arithmetic, they’re basically assured of the chance to walk away with real value should they keep the No. 4 pick.

If Thursday’s draft plays out the way I expect, Bagley will be the one walking across the stage to shake commissioner Adam Silver’s hand after donning the cap with the blue bear logo. Sacramento could shake things up at No. 2 and take Bagley, but that would mean Doncic potentially falls to Memphis. He’s also a quality fit as a playmaking small forward. And he’d be a draft night win for Memphis, too.

But Bagley should be the target and goal. He’s instant impact and comes with the backing of a global shoe endorsement and brand. He maximizes the immediate window in place with Gasol and Conley at this stage in their careers. And he provides a solid foundation for a transition to the future.

Memphis hasn’t had this type of lengthy, athletic scorer since Rudy Gay. They’re still in search of a force at power forward a year after Zach Randolph’s departure. Anyone worthy of being mentioned in the same vicinity as both Gay and Randolph doesn’t require much convincing. If the draft breaks right for Memphis, Bagley would be left as the ultimate catch on the board at No. 4.

The contents of this page have not been reviewed or endorsed by the Memphis Grizzlies. All opinions expressed by Michael Wallace are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of the Memphis Grizzlies or its Basketball Operations staff, owners, parent companies, partners or sponsors. His sources are not known to the Memphis Grizzlies and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an NBA accredited member of the media.