MEMPHIS – This basketball balance is real.
On one hand, Grizzlies fans are teeming with anticipation as Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery looms with the promise of brighter days ahead for a roster in transition.
On the other hand, there’s a strong sense of nostalgia as these compelling NBA playoffs roll along with recognizable contributors on the league’s biggest stages. Seven of the eight series in the first round of the NBA playoffs included a player, assistant or head coach who was either a Memphis native, former Memphis Tiger or once a member of the Grizzlies.
It’s no wonder this region annually ranks among the top markets in the nation in broadcast viewership ratings of the NBA playoffs. Although Memphis missed the playoffs for the second time in three seasons, the team doesn’t plan on being out of the postseason picture for long.
The Grizzlies do return to the national spotlight this weekend among 14 teams in Chicago for Sunday’s drawing for the top picks in June’s NBA Draft. At stake is the inside track on a talented incoming class of young players, including a handful of potential franchise-altering prospects.
The Grizzlies’ 25-57 record this past season positions them with the sixth-best odds at 9-percent to win the lottery and secure the No. 1 overall pick. Memphis has a 37.2-percent chance to jump up from sixth and land one of the coveted top four picks in the draft. As one of six NBA franchises yet to win the No. 1 pick, the Grizzlies have never picked higher than second overall.
Regardless of the random-but-weighted drawing of ping-pong balls, by which each team is assigned combinations of numbers, Memphis is assured of landing no worse than the 10th pick.
This will be the third consecutive season the Grizzlies will have a solid lottery pick. Last year, Memphis traded up to select swingman Cedric Coward with the No. 11 pick in the lottery a year after using the No. 9 selection on center Zach Edey. The goal is to continue to build upon that young core as the Grizzlies enter June’s draft stocked with three picks among the top 32 selections.
After trading veterans Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. in the past 10 months, the Grizzlies have also amassed a total of 13 first-round draft picks as assets over the next seven years.
Where the Grizzlies’ draft board stands entering the lottery and next week’s NBA Combine remains to be seen. I don’t possess the retinal scan, fingerprint or blood type required for access anywhere near the basketball operations scouting and draft room this time of year. (Kidding about the blood type, of course!).
However, 25 years of experience and exposure covering the NBA and the draft afford me my own unique perspective on incoming prospects and how they may stack up entering the league. This year’s one-and-done crop of freshmen, particularly among the top half of the lottery, is as intriguing as I’ve seen since that similar 2008 class that produced Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love and Eric Gordon.
Don’t knock my mock. In fact, don’t even consider this a mock draft because I don’t presume these players will go in any particular order. These are simply my 10 Most Intriguing Prospects heading into Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery.
1. AJ Dybansta, FR – 6-9, 210 SF – BYU
The skinny: Dybansta was a superstar entering his lone season in college and delivered at all levels with elite scoring, playmaking, athleticism and charisma. He was groomed for the NBA and has established himself as the clear-cut No. 1 pick.
2. Caleb Wilson, FR – 6-10, 215 PF – UNC
The skinny: Again, a disclaimer: this is simply MY take – and perhaps a controversial pick. If I’m the Grizzlies, I lean toward frontcourt athleticism and versatility at the top of this draft. Wilson’s explosive play at both ends gives him arguably the most upside of any prospect on the board.
3. Darryn Peterson, FR – 6-6, 205 SG – Kansas
The skinny: Perhaps the combine will provide a platform for Peterson to address some of the mystery related to his approach and mindset at Kansas. There’s no uncertainty about his skill and impact as a seamless three-level scorer. The reward may very well outweigh potential risks.
4.Cam Boozer, FR – 6-9, 250 PF/C – Duke
The skinny: In a front-loaded lottery full of high-ceiling potential prospects, no player has as solid of a foundational floor as Boozer. He is a double-double rolling out of bed in the NBA, and a sneaky good passer and shooter with range. The NBA pedigree from his dad doesn’t hurt a bit.
5. Keaton Wagler, FR – 6-6, 185 PG – Illinois
The skinny: Wagler arrives at the ideal time, just as the NBA is trending to interchangeable lead guard with length. Wagler blossomed in his team’s run to the NCAA Final Four, showing he’s adept at the pick-and-roll game as a scorer and a playmaker with a wonderfully versatile skillset.
6.Darius Acuff Jr., FR – 6-3, 190 PG – Arkansas
The skinny: Acuff carries Allen Iverson-approved swagger and flair from Day 1. Prolific scoring (23.5ppg), playmaking (6.4apg) and 3-point shooting (.440%) will make him an unstoppable force in short order at the next level. His challenge is to minimize that defensive liability.
7.Kingston Flemings, FR – 6-4, 190 PG – Houston
The skinny: Playing for Kelvin Sampson guarantees two things about Flemings: he’ll enter the NBA as a ready-made defender at his position, and he will have to show more of his offensive repertoire in the NBA than he was able to display in college. He’s the safest bet of PG prospects.
8.Yaxel Lendeborg, SR – 6-9, 235 PF/SF – Michigan
The skinny: I caught heat two years ago when I declared ahead of the draft that Edey would be a bona fide NBA center. Then the Grizzlies snagged him in the lottery, ahead of where most had him pegged. I feel that same way about Lendeborg – the grown man of this year’s lottery class.
9.Labaron Philon Jr., SO – 6-4, 175 PG/SG – Alabama
The skinny: At this stage, it’s all about preferences and splitting hairs between Philon and Mikel Brown Jr. The edge for me goes to Philon as the slightly better shooter from distance and overall facilitator. Philon also proved to be a bit more durable, but there’s really no wrong choice here.
10. Hannes Steinbach, FR – 6-11, 220 C/PF – Washington
The skinny: The German native finished as dominantly as any big in the country and could’ve returned to be a top-3 pick next year. While Tennessee’s Nate Ament is a trendier mock here for many, Steinbach’s size, touch and double-double production borders on top-10 intrigue for me.