MEMPHIS – Barring a miraculous surge in the conference standings these final two months, the Grizzlies will fall short of advancing to the NBA postseason for the first time in four years.
But that doesn’t render the rest of this season meaningless or moot as the Grizzlies return from the NBA All-Star break for their final 26 games, starting with Friday’s visit from the Clippers.
“We care deeply about every single game that we play, and that’s going to remain,” said Zach Kleiman, Grizzlies president of basketball operations and general manager. “There’s more work to be done. We take every game we play seriously and learn from every game we play. I’m excited to see what transpires the rest of the way.”
This season’s ultimate outcome will be defined by the 328 collective games already missed to player injuries, the 32 different starting lineups that have resulted and the 19 different players who have had an opportunity to start at least one game.
However, wherever there’s opportunity there’s also reason for optimism. And the Grizzlies are already planning to maximize a transitional offseason as they approach May’s draft lottery, June’s NBA Draft and July’s league-wide free agency period.
Meanwhile, on the court, they will hit the season’s stretch run trying to rekindle the energy they carried into the break after they posted consecutive home wins over the Rockets and Bucks.
Here are five things to watch over the Grizzlies’ final 26 games.
HEALING AT HOME
The Grizzlies play 14 of their final 26 games at FedExForum, where they followed the best home record in franchise history last season at 35-6 by getting off to their worst-ever start at home this season. But the Grizzlies have been much more competitive at home over the past month, as evidenced by their performance against the Rockets and Bucks last week.
There will be opportunities to maintain those great vibes with their home fans should the Grizzlies play with the same effort and youthful energy they’ve show recently. After facing the NBA championship-caliber Clippers on Friday, the Grizzlies play their next six home games against teams with losing records and headed for the lottery.
That home stretch includes Monday’s visit from the Nets and a two-game home set also next week against the Blazers. In addition to those opponents, the Grizzlies will also host the Hawks, Wizards, Hornets, Pistons and Spurs. Hence, there’s a chance to heal at home among a supportive fanbase without hurting the bigger picture.
ZIAIRE AND SANTI ON THE CLOCK
The best developments from a difficult season have been the emergence of second-year swingman Vince Williams Jr. and rookie forward GG Jackson, both late second-round draft picks.
Their breakout seasons saw their respective two-way developmental contracts converted to long-term standard NBA deals and have positioned both for key rotation roles into the future. Should they sustain successful play, it could send ripple effects through the roster, with none likely feeling the trimmers more so than third-year forwards Ziaire Williams and Santi Aldama.
That’s why it was encouraging to see Williams return from an injury absence for one of the best games of his career when he matched Jackson with a career-high 27 points against the Bucks. Both Williams and Aldama – the No. 10 and No. 30 picks in the first round of the 2021 draft – have battled nagging injuries and bouts of inconsistent play all season for the Grizzlies.
Both are also set to enter an offseason in which the Grizzlies face decisions regarding potential rookie scale contract extensions or restricted free agency. With Vince Williams and Jackson both now locked into more economical deals over the next three seasons, there’s no time better than now for Ziaire Williams and Aldama to finish this season with their strongest push yet.
BRANDON CLARKE’S CAMEO
Kleiman hinted at the possibility of forward Brandon Clarke returning by season’s end to test his recovery and progress after rehabbing the past 11 months from Achilles surgery.
If recent workout videos are any indication, the 6-foot-8 Clarke has regained much of the athleticism and explosion he showed through his first four years with the Grizzlies. Clarke joined a contingent of Grizzlies for an extensive workout retreat in the Caribbean during All-Star break. Clarke posted videos on social media of him dunking and shooting in drills while working alongside teammates Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ziaire Williams.
Although Clarke told ESPN’s Andscape in an interview earlier this season that he was expecting to return to action around the All-Star break, the Grizzlies have no incentive to rush him back. Kleiman confirmed earlier this month that Clarke is making tremendous progress and wouldn’t rule out a return at some point before the season ends.
“Brandon is a significant part of the ‘big’ equation going forward,” Kleiman said of Clarke’s role in a frontcourt next season that will be reshaped around Jaren Jackson Jr. “We’ll make a determination when we get a bit closer, but Brandon has not been ruled out this season. If it’s advisable, regardless of the record or anything like that, a little cameo at the end of the season to build momentum going into next season is something that’s on the table for Brandon.”
Clarke suffered the Achilles injury March 3 during the Grizzlies game in Denver. He has averaged 10.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and one block in 21.7 minutes per game during his first four seasons.
BANE AND SMART TO RETURN … AT 100% HEALTH
These weren’t characterized as season-ending – or even season-threatening – injuries when Marcus Smart (finger) and Desmond Bane (ankle) left the lineup just a game apart last month. So, the hope should be that Bane and Smart work their way back onto the court … eventually.
The Grizzlies announced Thursday night that both veteran guards will be out at least another three weeks to progress further in their respective recovery. Smart was injured Jan. 9 in Dallas and Bane was hurt Jan. 12 against the Clippers. Both were initially projected by the team to be reevaluated in 4-to-6 weeks.
Given the nature of the season, it would behoove the Grizzlies to bring back Bane or Smart at anything less than a 100-percent return to health. That said, count me in the camp that would like to see two of the Grizzlies best players log as much time on the court together as they can.
Even with Ja Morant sidelined for the season with shoulder surgery, Bane, Smart and Jaren Jackson can still benefit from establishing rhythm, timing and chemistry that only actual NBA games can provide. The reality is that this franchise has invested deeply into the upside that Jackson, Morant and Bane possess when healthy and available.
Since Bane arrived in the 2020-21 season, the Grizzlies’ ‘Big 3’ has only shared the court 124 of a possible 317 games due to injuries and other issues, according to SportRadar data. That counts regular season, postseason and this season’s In-Season Tournament. When counting the remaining 26 contests, that number grows to 124 of a possible 343 game opportunities.
Get fully healthy, absolutely. But this group of frontline stars (Morant, Jackson, Bane, Smart) still has more on-court continuity to establish in NBA action on their way to true title contention. As long as it literally doesn’t hurt to play, it won’t hurt to play in a few more games this season.
PLAY IT OUT COMPETITIVELY!
Chances are, it’ll be nearly impossible to fall below the Pistons, Spurs, Wizards and Hornets in the overall NBA standings the rest of the way. So those four teams are essentially locks to land the four-best odds heading into the May lottery.
For the Grizzlies, that’s fine. They’ll get back to work Friday currently positioned in the standings for a top-seven pick in the coming NBA Draft. That spot would give Memphis a 7.5-percent chance to win the lottery and earn the No. 1 pick.
In 2019, the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied with 33-49 records and entered the lottery positioned with the 7th and 8th-best chances, respectively. They both jumped up into the top two after the lottery and selected Zion Williamson and Morant, respectively.
From continued development to roster drama to pre-draft positioning, there are plenty of reasons to be intrigued by the rest of this Grizzlies season.
Buckle up for the stretch run ride.