We are a dozen weeks into the college football season, and by now we have a pretty good idea of which teams have legit claims to the throne, and which programs are only pretenders. Of course, we just need need four finalists, since that’s apparently as big as the NCAA wants the college football playoff to be. Which pretty much everyone agrees is ridiculous, but whatever.
Anyway, we only need four teams, and right now, as it happens, there are only four college football teams that have at least five wins over bowl-eligible teams: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Georgia.
I feel like each of these four teams has a mostly clear claim to a postseason spot, and if the Playoffs started today and these were the four that made it, you could make a relatively coherent case for each of them, although there will certainly be some partisan rancor out there no matter who slips through.
But the playoffs don’t start today. And in a couple of weeks, Alabama and Georgia will play each other for the SEC Championship, meaning one of those two teams will have another L by the time the playoffs roll around. And if UGA finishes the season with two losses, they will be erased from the playoff picture.
So who deserves to be in the final four? As I see it, there are 10 teams with a legitimate claim to be invited to the small dance. Let’s run through all the contenders…
1. Alabama
— The Crimson Tide are unbelievably good. They haven’t lost a game all season. The most points any opponent scored against them was 31 points (and Alabama still won that game by 34). Their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, is going to win the Heisman Trophy, and they basically start NFL players at every position. They absolutely should win the National Championship. That said, they nearly lost last year’s championship game against UGA, so if anyone should be familiar with Nick Saban and his squad, it’s the Dawgs, who they’ll have to play in the SEC title game in a few weeks. Would Alabama make it in even if they lose the SEC title game? A lot of people outside the South will hate to hear this, but my guess is yeah, they make it in, because they’re the defending champs and you know Saban will be out there politicking to get the nod. And don’t forget, Bama has to get through The Citadel first…
2. Clemson
— The unbeaten Tigers are most likely the second-best team in the land, and they stuffed Boston College last weekend. They still have to play a South Carolina team that has been increasingly frisky in recent weeks, as well as probably Pitt in the ACC title game. Dabo and the guys would likely love a chance against Alabama again in this year’s playoff after they got thumped 24-6 last year. They will probably get that chance. Just be careful what you wish for.
3. Notre Dame
— The Fighting Irish are the other big-time undefeated team, sitting at 10-0 right now. They’ve beaten a few very good teams (Michigan, Virginia Tech, Stanford), and with Ian Book at quarterback they’ve looked like a complete team. They still have two tough games left, against number 13 Syracuse and then at USC, which could knock them from the ranks of the unbeaten. My guess is a one-loss Notre Dame will not make it into the fab four, but an undefeated Irish will make it in. So if you’re Notre Dame, it’s win or go home.
4. Georgia
— Same saying goes for my Dogs, I think, who are 9-1 and have to play a surging Georgia Tech and then Alabama. I’m already sitting over here shaking thinking about having to get through Alabama again. For what it’s worth, since losing to LSU a few weeks back, UGA has looked better and better each week. But I still think they’re a step below Alabama.
5. Michigan
— The Wolverines lost their opener at Notre Dame, and everyone was ready to proclaim the Harbaugh era over. But they haven’t lost against since, and they’ve looked particularly good over the last month, dominating three ranked teams in Wisconsin (38-13), Penn State (42-7) and Michigan State (21-7). They still have a sizable roadblock in their way in two weeks, when they play at Ohio State, but to me the Wolverines are definitely one of the four best teams in the country right now.
6. Oklahoma
— The Sooners are magical on offense, and haven’t scored less than 37 points in a game all season. They also haven’t held a team below 14 points all season. They looked mostly dominant, but a midseason loss to Texas provides cover if the Sooners win out and the selection committee still leaves the Sooners on the outside looking in.
7. West Virginia
— The Mountaineers probably aren’t as flashy a pick as Oklahoma would be, and while the did deal an L to the best team they played this season, Texas, they also took an L back from Iowa State. Quarterback Will Grier has met all the high expectations surrounding him, and the offense has totaled 147 points in the last three games. Lucky for us, West Virginia plays Oklahoma in two weeks, so one of these two teams will likely be eliminated from consideration.
8. Washington State
— A three-point loss at USC is the lone blemish on their record, and lately they’ve looked like a team on the rise, beating West Coast contenders like Oregon and Stanford, with Washington still on the menu in a few weeks. Last weekend, after Washington State beat Colorado on the road, the always-interesting Coach Mike Leach paid tribute to QB Gardner Minshew (as well as Burt Reynolds, apparently) by wearing a stick-on mustache in his walkoff interview…
9. Ohio State
— The Buckeyes already have a loss on the season, getting beat at Purdue by nearly 30. They then barely beat Nebraska. But they are 9-1, and if they can beat Michigan in a few weeks, they’ll have a shot at winning the Big 10 title, which would look great on their resume. But they’ll also have to hope some of these teams above them eliminate themselves from the conversation.
10. Central Florida
— OK, we get it. The Golden Knights are 9-0, with two games left on their schedule, neither against ranked opponents. Going back to last season, UCF has won 22 games in a row and scored at least 30 points in each of those games. Unless they can somehow improve their strength of schedule, which is water under the bridge at this point, they will likely be left out once again.
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