MEMPHIS – The Grizzlies are closing in on the June 21 NBA Draft with their options as wide open and diverse as the talent among projected top players on the board.
As pre-draft workouts continue and potential trade scenarios are discussed regarding what the Grizzlies will do with the No. 4 overall pick, we’ll examine the case of eight potential franchise-altering players in the draft who either are or should be under strong consideration for that selection.
Player: Luka Doncic
Height/Weight: 6-8, 218
Team: Real Madrid
2017-18 Stats: 14.5 ppg., 5.2 rpg., 4.6 apg., 59.2 FG%, 30.9%3FG
Projected Draft Range: Picks 1-4
Opening Statement
“I’ve been scouting in Europe since 1990, and he’s one of the most accomplished players in that time that I’ve seen. The impact he’s had on winning already this year – his team has won the EuroLeague championship, he was on the Slovenian (gold medal EuroBasket) team before the season. And if Real Madrid wins the ACB Spanish League title, which runs through June, that’s a terrific triple crown for someone 19 years of age to have on their resume.” – Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace on Doncic’s accomplishments this past year.
The Case For Doncic
There’s not a better player outside of the continental United States right now than the Slovenian teenager racking up championships and MVP trophies at every European stop across the globe. There’s so much hype and mystique surrounding Doncic that, even three weeks out from the NBA draft, we’re not sure if the 19-year-old is 6-6 or 6-8, if he’s a point guard or small forward, if his off-court persona is more Justin Bieber immature-ishly playful or Johnny Manziel-like potentially worrisome. For now, chalk that up to growing into adulthood with the basketball world essentially at one’s fingertips.
He also showed the wherewithal and compassion to donate his EuroLeague Final Four jersey to the mother of the late Drazen Petrovic for a museum display, which commemorates the 25th anniversary of the death of the iconic European legend who starred in the NBA during the 1990s. What’s clearly known about Doncic is that when he has the ball in his hands, he possesses a grown-man, NBA-ready, playmaking skillset and the size to immediately contribute to any team atop the lottery.
From my vantage point, a fair and reasonable NBA comparison for Doncic’s initial impact would be similar to that of Wizards’ 6-7 guard Tomas Satoransky, who slid in admirably during John Wall’s injury absence last season and in February averaged 11.8 points, 5.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and shot 60.2-percent from the field overall and 55.6-percent on threes. Doncic is Exhibit A of the plug-and-play prospect who would slot seamlessly alongside Marc Gasol and Mike Conley in a Grizzlies’ lineup intent on rebounding quickly to return to the playoffs next season.
The Case Against Doncic
It’s an unfair one on the surface. But how many so-called European sensations arrived in the lottery over the last 15 years of NBA drafts and actually lived up to anything close to their billing? That line includes flat-out busts in Darko Milicic and Jan Vesely to the well overhyped but highly underperforming Mario Hezonja and Dragan Bender. Even Wallace suggested the buzz around Doncic is probably as high as it’s been for any player coming over since a teenaged Ricky Rubio in 2009 or when Toni Kukoc finally arrived to join Michael Jordan in 1993. It’s safe to say Rubio has been a solid pro for a decade in the league, but has never elevated into the debate of the top-10 NBA point guards. And Kukoc contributed to a dynasty, but was never really better than the fourth-best player on any of Jordan’s teams.
What does that have to do with Doncic? Nothing. Except he’ll invade the NBA with an enormous weight on his shoulders to be a one-man Beattles at best, or, at least, this draft’s version of Kristaps Porzingis. Doncic has accomplished as much as any of them in a shorter timeframe on his way to stardom. He could also flex his strongest bit of leverage: the option to pull out of the draft by the June 11 deadline if unhappy with his potential NBA landing spot, play another lucrative season overseas and re-enter next year’s draft.
As purely a basketball fit, Doncic’s lack of defensive quickness was noticeable in Europe and will be isolated and exposed on the wing in the NBA. As a primary playmaker, his 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio isn’t exactly stellar, and the 30.9-percent shooting on threes this season was as much an issue with shot selection as with mechanics and accuracy. Doncic’s potential ceiling isn’t as sky-high as DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Jaren Jackson Jr. or a healthy Michael Porter Jr. But the foundation of Doncic’s floor may be sturdier than anyone on the board.
The Verdict
Doncic’s postseason schedule will likely prevent him from visiting Memphis or any other NBA city between now and draft night. But the Grizzlies’ front office has done its due diligence and has thoroughly scouted him overseas on at least four trips for games in three leagues since last summer. Trading up from fourth to first or second doesn’t seem like an option.
And despite the guesswork of most mock drafts, indications I’ve heard since the night of the lottery were that Doncic wouldn’t slip past No. 2 to Sacramento. Things can change between now and June 21. And if they do, the Grizzlies will gladly take Doncic, who, in my opinion, should rate higher than anyone within range on their draft board. He can be the type of player Memphis anticipated when Chandler Parsons signed in 2016 free agency before more knee issues surfaced. Will Doncic be the best player in the draft four or five years from now? I wouldn’t bet on it. But can he be a Rubio or Kukoc as a high-end NBA role player for a decade? Certainly.
Is he the best potential fit for the Grizzlies as currently constructed, in hopes of maximizing what’s remaining of the Conley-Gasol window? No doubt about it. Doncic has been on a meteoric rise the past year. It’s hard to see that trajectory all of a sudden changing enough in the next few weeks for him to fall fourth to the Grizzlies.
The contents of this page have not been reviewed or endorsed by the Memphis Grizzlies. All opinions expressed by Michael Wallace are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of the Memphis Grizzlies or its Basketball Operations staff, owners, parent companies, partners or sponsors. His sources are not known to the Memphis Grizzlies and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an NBA accredited member of the media.