By Michael Wallace
Grind City Media
MEMPHIS – With a month left in the NBA regular season, 24 of the league’s 30 teams are either strongly in playoff position or within five games of competing for one of the final postseason spots.
Who says madness in March was only about college basketball?
As most of the wild jockeying plays out in the bottom halves of the conference standings for seeding in the East and West, the real drama in the season’s stretch run are the dilemmas unfolding on the other end of the playoff brackets.
There’s a legitimate sense of vulnerability at the top, where Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland haven’t exactly been striking fear in the rest of the league in recent weeks as they’ve sorted through chemistry or lingering injury concerns. In other words, their collective tenacity has been tempered.
“If you’re asking me will the eventual NBA champ come from that group and end up being one of those three teams, I’ll say it’s still hard to nearly impossible to see it any other way,” a long-time Eastern Conference scout insists. “But do the Cavs, Warriors and Spurs have more issues to deal with than they’ve had the past few years heading toward the playoffs? There’s no question about that.”
There’s also no question that there’s still plenty of time left over the next four weeks for the NBA’s top three juggernauts to regain their footing and fortify for another run to the NBA Finals.
Yet there’s clearly work to be done.
The defending champion Cavaliers clearly have their problems, having dropped six of 10 and are desperately tinkering with a roster that’s been both unsettling and unsatisfying around LeBron James and Kyrie Irving all season. Another prolonged injury absence for Kevin Love has left the frontline in flux, and has also left the door open for the Wizards and Celtics to keep the heat on for the East’s No. 1 seed.
In the West, the Warriors have split their past 10 games and needed to rally from a double-digit deficit at home earlier this week to fend off the 76ers. Consider the context.
I just continue to remind guys we’ve been in a bit of a rut, and the only way to change that is to grind our way out of it… It’s not going to be pretty.
— Draymond Green
Golden State lost five games in the past two weeks after losing only nine games the entire regular season when they set an NBA record with that 73-9 record a year ago. It’s no coincidence that the relative tough times have come as the Warriors continue to appear mortal as they cope with the injury absence of Kevin Durant, who spoke last week for the first time since he suffered a knee injury last month, but offered no definitive timeframe for his return.
“I just continue to remind guys we’ve been in a bit of a rut, and the only way to change that is to grind our way out of it,” Warriors forward Draymond Green told reporters. “It’s not going to be pretty.”
It’s easy to point to a roster that still has MVP Steph Curry, fellow perennial All-Stars in Green and Klay Thompson and Finals MVP Andre Iguodala and argue the Warriors still have way more talent that most teams. They should continue to roll. But it’s hardly that simple. The past two years, the Warriors’ strength was in their numbers. Their role players and second unit were as good as the collective of players most other teams had in their starting lineups.
Acquiring Durant in free agency last summer meant sacrificing the chemistry and depth that pushed the Warriors through the past two seasons and into consecutive trips to the Finals. Most believed Durant vacated his right to serious MVP consideration when he bailed on Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City.
The irony, however, is that despite posting one of the best and most efficient seasons of his career in Golden State, the case for his value has only been boosted significantly in his absence this month.
Meanwhile, the Spurs have been unable to overtake the Warriors because San Antonio temporarily lost their two best players in Kawhi Leonard (concussion tests) and LaMarcus Aldridge (heart arrhythmia). The past four weeks have seen the Spurs run off a lethal 11-1 stretch that was bookended by lousy losses to the New York Knicks and Portland Trail Blazers.
Still, the only two Ls that define the Spurs legitimacy are Leonard and LaMarcus. And that directly impacts the Grizzlies, who would be staring at a first-round matchup with San Antonio if the playoffs started today. Fortunately for all sides, they don’t.
But the Grizzlies still have some major tests remaining this season against the West frontrunners, including three games left with the Spurs, including Saturday’s showdown at FedExForum. The Grizzlies then face the Spurs and Warriors in consecutive games during the middle of next week’s four-game trip.
While the Warriors hope to regroup for now and then work to eventually reintegrate Durant when the playoffs roll around, the Spurs aim to get their two catalysts on the same page again after a week of major injury scares. After undergoing a battery of tests on his heart after the latest episode of arrhythmia, Aldridge returned to the lineup Wednesday and has been cleared without restrictions.
“We’re obviously thrilled about that, but more importantly thrilled that the doctors feel that he’s fine in a sense that we’re not putting him in any danger or anything like that,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. “So that’s the most important part. So, being a consummate pro, he was able to do everything that was necessary to bring this to some sort of a conclusion, and that wasn’t easy throughout the year.”
For the Warriors, Spurs and Cavs, little has been easy this season. And that’s especially the case now.
Are they each still strong title contenders? Absolutely. That hasn’t changed.
They’re all venerable.
But a bit more vulnerable, too.
Grind City’s NBA Power Index
San Antonio Spurs
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Washington Wizards
Utah Jazz
Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Clippers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Toronto Raptors
The Spurs have the league’s sixth toughest schedule from here on out, but their NBA-best road record proves they’re still quite capable of securing the No. 1 overall seed – if they want it. Last Week: 1
The Warriors are one of the fastest-paced teams in the game. That didn’t help them last week, when they couldn’t distance themselves from Andre Iguodala’s slave comment fast enough. LW: 2
A highly productive week saw the Rockets win three in a row, officially clinch a playoff spot and dig Memphis native Lou Williams out of an extended slump to bolster that lethal bench. LW: 3
A week after Andrew Bogut broke his leg two minutes into his Cavs’ stint, LeBron and Co. took another gamble by signing Larry Sanders after a three-year absence to boost their frontline. LW: 4
Speculation of chemistry and relationship issues between John Wall and Bradley Beal have faded farther and farther into the rearview mirror for the Wizards, now 22-7 since a 19-19 start. LW: 7
Big-time test and showdown for the Jazz, whose efforts to lock up a top-four seed in the West will go a long way if they go to Cleveland on Thursday and knock off the best team in the East. LW: 6
Isaiah Thomas has led the Celtics in scoring 32 consecutive games as Boston continues to remain in striking distance with Washington to push Cleveland for the East’s No. 1 playoff seed. LW: 5
A disappointing home loss to the Bucks halted the first real momentum the Clippers had enjoyed since the All-Star break. Still, hopes remain alive for a No. 4 seed to host a playoff series LW: 9
Russell Westbrook is proving two things: First, he’s really going to become the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double. Secondly, who needs Mark Cuban’s approval? LW: NR
Toronto has been in the midst of a shaky existence without All-Star and leading three-point shooter Kyle Lowry, who likely won’t return until the playoffs. The Raptors are 7-4 in his absence LW: 8
The contents of this page have not been reviewed or endorsed by the Memphis Grizzlies. All opinions expressed by Michael Wallace are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of the Memphis Grizzlies or its Basketball Operations staff, owners, parent companies, partners or sponsors. His sources are not known to the Memphis Grizzlies and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an NBA accredited member of the media.